March Madness predictions: ESPN game predictor's NCAA Tournament picks, win probabilities (2025)

Which NCAA Tournament teams have the best chances of winning their games in the first round of March Madness on Thursday and Friday?

ESPN Analytics has revealed its Matchup Predictor numbers for the first-round NCAA Tournament matchups on March 20 and 21, and they offer some interesting win probabilities.

Take a look at the site's March Madness picks for the Thursday and Friday March Madness NCAA Tournament first-round matchups, which start with Louisville vs Creighton and conclude with Oregon vs Liberty (with 30 games in between).

How do the site's predictions compare with the NCAA Tournament oddsfor March Madness games?

All times MST (add three hours for Eastern time).

Thursday March Madness first round picks: Louisville vs Creighton | Purdue vs High Point | Wisconsin vs Montana | Houston vs SIUE | Auburn vs Alabama State | Clemson vs McNeese | BYU vs VCU | Gonzaga vs Georgia | Tennessee vs Wofford | Kansas vs Arkansas | | Missouri vs Drake | UCLA vs Utah State | St. John's vs Omaha | Michigan vs UCSD | Texas Tech vs UNCW | The Republic's predictions

Friday March Madness first round picks: Mississippi State vs Baylor | Alabama vs Robert Morris | Iowa State vs Lipscomb | Memphis vs Colorado State | Duke vs Mount St. Mary's | Saint Mary's vs Vanderbilt | Ole Miss vs North Carolina | Maryland vs Grand Canyon | Florida vs Norfolk State | Kentucky vs Troy | Marquette vs New Mexico | Arizona vs Akron | UConn vs Oklahoma | Illinois vs Xavier | Michigan State vs Bryant | Oregon vs Liberty | The Republic's predictions

More March Madness: How to watch games | TV channels | Game times | Announcers | Schedule today | Picks today | Upset picks | Win probabilities | NCAA Tournament odds | Game odds | Odds today | Printable bracket

Watch March Madness games on FUBO (free trial)

March Madness first-round game predictions for Thursday

• 9:15 a.m.:No. 8 Louisville vs. No. 9 Creighton (Lexington) | CBS (stream with free trial from FUBO)

Creighton has a 52.5% chance to beat Louisville.

The site gives the Cardinals a 47.5% shot at defeating the Bluejays in Thursday's first-round March Madness NCAA Tournament game.

• 9:40 a.m.:No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 13 High Point (Providence) | truTV (stream with Sling TV)

Purdue has an 81.8% chance to beat High Point.

The site gives the Panthers an 18.2% shot at defeating the Boilermakers in Thursday's first-round March Madness NCAA Tournament game.

More March Madness: How to watch games | TV channels | Game times | Announcers | Upset picks | Win probabilities | NCAA Tournament odds | Game odds | Printable bracket

March Madness TV schedule: Television channels, streaming, how to watch NCAA Tournament

• 10:30 a.m.:No. 3 Wisconsin vs. No. 14 Montana (Denver) | TNT (stream with Sling TV)

Wisconsin has a 94.7% chance to beat Montana.

The site gives the Grizzlies a 5.3% shot at defeating the Badgers in Thursday's first-round March Madness NCAA Tournament game.

• 11 a.m.:No. 1 Houston vs. No. 16 SIU Edwardsville (Wichita) | TBS (stream with Sling TV)

Houston has a 99% chance to beat SIU Edwardsville.

The site gives SIUE a 1% shot at defeating Houston in Thursday's first-round March Madness NCAA Tournament game.

• 11:50 a.m.:No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 16 Alabama State (Lexington) | CBS (stream with free trial from FUBO)

Auburn has a 99% chance to beat Alabama State.

The site gives the Hornets a 1% shot at defeating the Tigers in Thursday's first-round March Madness NCAA Tournament game.

• 12:15 p.m.:No. 5 Clemson vs. No. 12 McNeese (Providence) | truTV (stream with Sling TV)

Clemson has a 79.8% chance to beat McNeese.

The site gives the Cowboys a 20.2% shot at defeating the Tigers in Thursday's first-round March Madness NCAA Tournament game.

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• 1:05 p.m.:No. 6 Brigham Young vs. No. 11 Virginia Commonwealth (Denver) | TNT (stream with Sling TV)

BYU has a 57.3% chance to beat VCU.

The site gives the Rams a 42.7% shot at defeating the Cougars in Thursday's first-round March Madness NCAA Tournament game.

• 1:35 p.m.:No. 8 Gonzaga vs. No. 9 Georgia (Wichita) | TBS (stream with Sling TV)

Gonzaga has a 71.3% chance to beat Georgia.

The site gives the Bulldogs a 28.7% shot at defeating the Zags in Thursday's first-round March Madness NCAA Tournament game.

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• 3:50 p.m.:No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 15 Wofford (Lexington) | TNT (stream with Sling TV)

Tennessee has a 95.7% chance to beat Wofford.

The site gives the Terriers a 4.3% shot at defeating the Volunteers in Thursday's first-round March Madness NCAA Tournament game.

• 4:10 p.m.:No. 7 Kansas vs. No. 10 Arkansas (Providence) | CBS (stream with free trial from FUBO)

Kansas has a 71% chance to beat Arkansas.

The site gives the Razorbacks a 29% shot at defeating the Jayhawks in Thursday's first-round March Madness NCAA Tournament game.

• 4:25 p.m.: (Denver) | TBS (stream with Sling TV)

Texas A&M has a 78.2% chance to beat Yale.

The site gives the Bulldogs a 21.8% shot at defeating the Aggies in Thursday's first-round March Madness NCAA Tournament game.

• 4:35 p.m.:No. 6 Missouri vs. No. 11 Drake (Wichita) | truTV (stream with Sling TV)

Missouri has a 72.9% chance to beat Drake.

The site gives the Bulldogs a 27.1% shot at defeating the Tigers in Thursday's first-round March Madness NCAA Tournament game.

March Madness game odds: Point spreads, moneylines, over/unders for NCAA Tournament 2025

• 6:25 p.m.:No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 Utah State (Lexington) | TNT (stream with Sling TV)

UCLA has a 62.2% chance to beat Utah State.

The site gives the Aggies a 37.8% shot at defeating the Bruins in Thursday's first-round March Madness NCAA Tournament game.

• 6:45 p.m.:No. 2 St. John's vs. No. 15 Omaha (Providence) | CBS (stream with free trial from FUBO)

St. John's has a 96.6% chance to beat Omaha.

The site gives the Mavericks a 3.4% shot at defeating the Red Storm in Thursday's first-round March Madness NCAA Tournament game.

Watch NCAA Tournament games on Sling TV

• 7 p.m.:No. 5 Michigan vs. No. 12 UC San Diego (Denver) | TBS (stream with Sling TV)

Michigan has a 66.6% chance to beat UC San Diego.

The site gives the Tritons a 33.4% shot at defeating the Wolverines in Thursday's first-round March Madness NCAA Tournament game.

• 7:10 p.m.:No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 14 UNC-Wilmington (Wichita) | truTV (stream with Sling TV)

Texas Tech has a 92.3% chance to beat UNC Wilmington.

The site gives the Seahawks a 7.7% shot at defeating the Red Raiders in Thursday's first-round March Madness NCAA Tournament game.

March Madness first-round game predictions for Friday

• 9:15 a.m.:No. 8 Mississippi State vs. No. 9 Baylor (Raleigh) | CBS (stream with free trial from FUBO)

Baylor has a 61.4% chance to beat Mississippi State.

The site gives the Bulldogs a 38.6% shot at defeating the Bears in Friday's first-round March Madness NCAA Tournament game.

• 9:40 a.m.:No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 15 Robert Morris (Cleveland) | truTV (stream with Sling TV)

Alabama has a 96.7% chance to beat Robert Morris.

The site gives the Colonials a 3.3% shot at defeating the Crimson Tide in Friday's first-round March Madness NCAA Tournament game.

More: Printable March Madness bracket for making 2025 NCAA Tournament picks, predictions

• 10:30 a.m.:No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 14 Lipscomb (Milwaukee) | TNT (stream with Sling TV)

Iowa State has a 92.4% chance to beat Lipscomb.

The site gives the Bisons a 7.6% shot at defeating the Cyclones in Friday's first-round March Madness NCAA Tournament game.

• 11 a.m.:No. 5 Memphis vs. No. 12 Colorado State (Seattle) | TBS (stream with Sling TV)

Memphis has a 52.8% chance to beat Colorado State.

The site gives the Rams a 47.2% shot at defeating the Tigers in Friday's first-round March Madness NCAA Tournament game.

More: March Madness upset predictions, picks, bracket-busters for 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket

• 11:50 a.m.:No. 1Dukevs. No. 16 Mount St. Mary's (Raleigh) | CBS (stream with free trial from FUBO)

Duke has a 99% chance to Mount St. Mary's.

The site gives the Mountaineers a 1% shot at defeating the Blue Devils in Friday's first-round March Madness NCAA Tournament game.

• 12:15 p.m.:No. 7 Saint Mary's vs. No. 10 Vanderbilt (Cleveland) | truTV (stream with Sling TV)

Saint Mary's has a 65.8% chance to beat Vanderbilt.

The site gives the Commodores a 34.2% shot at defeating the Gaels in Friday's first-round March Madness NCAA Tournament game.

March Madness announcers: TV broadcasters, announcing schedule for first-round games

• 1:05 p.m.:No. 6 Mississippi vs. No. 11 North Carolina (Milwaukee) | TNT (stream with Sling TV)

North Carolina has a 56.3% chance to beat Ole Miss.

The site gives the Rebels a 43.7% shot at defeating the Tar Heels in Friday's first-round March Madness NCAA Tournament game.

• 1:35 p.m.:No. 4 Maryland vs. No. 13 Grand Canyon (Seattle) | TBS (stream with Sling TV)

Maryland has an 86.1% chance to beat Grand Canyon.

The site gives the Lopes a 13.9% shot at defeating the Terrapins in Friday's first-round March Madness NCAA Tournament game.

Grand Canyon vs Maryland prediction: Our pick for 2025 NCAA Tournament first round

Grand Canyon March Madness prediction: How far will Lopes go in NCAA Tournament?

• 3:50 p.m.:No. 1 Florida vs. No. 16 Norfolk State (Raleigh) | TNT (stream with Sling TV)

Florida has a 97.3% chance to beat Norfolk State.

The site gives the Spartans a 2.7% shot at defeating the Gators in Friday's first-round March Madness NCAA Tournament game.

• 4:10 p.m.:No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 14 Troy (Milwaukee) | CBS (stream with free trial from FUBO)

Kentucky has an 89% chance to beat Troy.

The site gives the Trojans an 11% shot at defeating the Wildcats in Friday's first-round March Madness NCAA Tournament game.

Watch March Madness games on Paramount+

• 4:25 p.m.:No. 7 Marquette vs. No. 10 New Mexico (Cleveland) | TBS (stream with Sling TV)

Marquette has a 70.4% chance to beat New Mexico.

The site gives the Lobos a 29.6% shot at defeating the Golden Eagles in Friday's first-round March Madness NCAA Tournament game.

• 4:35 p.m.:No. 4 Arizona vs. No. 13 Akron (Seattle) | truTV (stream with Sling TV)

Arizona has a 92.7% chance to beat Akron.

The site gives the Zips a 7.3% shot at defeating the Wildcats in Friday's first-round March Madness NCAA Tournament game.

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Arizona March Madness prediction: How far will Wildcats go in NCAA Tournament?

• 6:25 p.m.:No. 8 Connecticut vs. No. 9 Oklahoma (Raleigh) | TNT (stream with Sling TV)

UConn has a 69.9% chance to beat Oklahoma.

The site gives the Sooners a 30.1% shot at defeating the Huskies in Friday's first-round March Madness NCAA Tournament game.

• 6:45 p.m.:No. 6 Illinois vs. No. 11 Xavier (Milwaukee) | CBS (stream with free trial from FUBO)

Illinois has a 60.3% chance to beat Xavier.

The site gives the Musketeers a 39.7% shot at defeating the Fighting Illini in Friday's first-round March Madness NCAA Tournament game.

What channels are NCAA tourney games on? How to watch March Madness first-round on TV

• 7 p.m.:No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 15 Bryant (Cleveland) | TBS (stream with Sling TV)

Michigan State has a 93.9% chance to beat Bryant.

The site gives the Bulldogs a 6.1% shot at defeating the Spartans in Friday's first-round March Madness NCAA Tournament game.

• 7:10 p.m.:No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 12 Liberty (Seattle) | truTV (stream with Sling TV)

Oregon has a 75.8% chance to beat Liberty.

The site gives the Flames a 24.2% shot at defeating the Ducks in Friday's first-round March Madness NCAA Tournament game.

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